Manhattan Transfer: How Travel to the CBD will Change Post-Pandemic
A study by Clarion Research (Joseph Ciliberto, Beverly Escario, Diane Traiger) and Sam Schwartz (Kelly McGuinness, Daniel Schack, AICP, Samuel I. Schwartz, PE, Colin Thompson)
The COVID-19 pandemic that struck the United States in Spring 2020 caused overall mobility to plummet. In the subsequent year and a half, travel started to slowly recover, but the impact continues to be profoundly felt in the country’s central business districts (CBDs). In the New York City CBD (Manhattan south of 60th Street), areas once teeming with people travelling to and from homes, offices, restaurants, theaters, and shops remain quieter than normal. For those that have begun travelling to the CBD again, many have changed the way they travel by shifting to new modes or times.
To better understand how and why people travel to the Manhattan CBD, Sam Schwartz partnered with Clarion Research to conduct a detailed survey of New York metropolitan area (New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut) residents' typical weekday travel patterns to the CBD before the pandemic (in 2019), during the pandemic (in 2021), and how they expect to travel after the pandemic (assumed in 2023). The results from this sample were used to project regional travel patterns in 2023. Highlights of the survey findings are included below.
Daily visits into the CBD are projected to drop from 3.9 million people to 3.6 million people.
Almost 3.9 million people entered the CBD on an average weekday in 2019. By Spring 2021 that number dropped 67% to about 1.3 million people. By 2023, it is projected that 3.6 million people will enter daily—a drop of 8% from 2019.
Although by 2023 total entries are expected to be lower on any given weekday, incidence of travel (i.e., regularly entering the CBD) is projected to rebound by 2023. 34% of regular travelers to the CBD entered at least once a week in 2019, and 34% expect to resume this in 2023.
Driving, walking, and biking will increase by 2023 (vs. 2019); subway, bus, and rail transit usage will decline.
Travel into the CBD changed dramatically between 2019 and 2021. 73% of trips were on public transit in 2019, but now only 56% of trips are on transit. Subways took the biggest hit, dropping from 56% to 39% (note: system-wide subway ridership has rebounded to over 50% of pre-pandemic volumes as of September 2021, but this survey only looked at subway trips into the CBD). In 2023, transit is expected to bounce back to 65%, with subways projected to rebound to 48%.
Some people switched from transit to driving during the pandemic and are unlikely to fully switch back. In 2019, 23% of trips into the CBD on a typical weekday were by personal vehicle; that jumped to 35% during the pandemic. By 2023, car share is projected to reduce somewhat to 28%—still well above 2019 levels. This would translate to an increase of as many as 85,000 vehicles entering the CBD daily (assuming 1.25 people per vehicle), likely causing a significant increase in congestion in an area where traffic speeds already normally hover around 7 mph, according to the 2019 Mobility Report by NYCDOT.
Some switched to active modes, such as biking and walking, during the pandemic and are likely to stick with it. About 26,000 people biked into the CBD on any given day in 2019—that number is projected to quadruple to nearly 106,000 by 2023. Walkers are also projected to increase to nearly 134,000, from 115,000.
Decreases in overall CBD travel due mostly to increased working from home, along with some safety fears
Although person entries into the CBD are projected to be lower in 2023 than in 2019, it is important to note that this does not necessarily translate to a permanent reduction in the New York area workforce. Changes in work patterns account for most of the projected CBD travel decline. 80% of respondents believe they will be working remotely more than they did in 2019. While they would like to work 2.1 days per week remotely on average, they think their employers will only permit 1.6 days per week.
Concerns about safety on public transit in 2023 have also been expressed. But perceived safety is only slightly weaker than in 2019. Most travelers felt safe on public transit before the pandemic (79%); though this plummeted during the pandemic (42%), it returns nearly to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 (68%).
Of those who both traveled to the CBD in 2019 and anticipate travelling in 2023, 34% expect to use transit less in 2023. The main reason stated by these individuals is new work patterns, with 36% expecting to be working from home more. Others cite safety concerns about both crime and disease.
Looking to the future
We recommend the city and state take these findings into account and start planning now for a post-pandemic city. More people will be walking, biking, and taking ferries, and likely other forms of micromobility (scooters, mopeds, hoverboards, etc.)—a shift that has already begun happening. The city’s infrastructure has not kept pace with shifting demand patterns.
More worrisome is that driving into Manhattan, which plateaued for many years and even declined in the 2010’s, is expected to rise by almost 90,000 vehicles per day—leading to more congestion, pollution, and added tension on our streets. This should be addressed before the streets become overwhelmed. The city and state should take steps to advance congestion pricing as quickly as possible, continue the expansion of dedicated bus and bike infrastructure, and grow investment in transit systems. In addition, agency leaders can consider shorter lead-time measures, such as adapting transit fare systems to encourage ridership by workers who are no longer commuting five days a week, or occupancy restrictions like those that were used successfully during the transit strike of 1980 and post-September 11th.
The detailed survey methodology and findings can be found here:
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